John Paul Newport: Not the Sharpest Wedge in the Bag - I

Introduction - John Paul Newport is the golf columnist for the Wall Street Journal.  He does well when his column is purely descriptive (e.g., my round with Donald Trump), but struggles when the subject is more technical.  His difficulty is exemplified by two columns where Newport extolled the work of Mark Broadie and his “strokes gained statistic.”[1]  Both columns make the same points, and both promote Broadie’s forthcoming book, Every Shot Counts.   More problematic is why Newport is promoting a book that is still “forthcoming” some 20 months after he first wrote about it. 

Both columns argue that Broadie’s work has debunked myths about the determinants of scoring.  If Newport had a background in player performance research, he would have known that 1) the myths listed in the column are straw men or myths that have been debunked a long time ago, and 2) the putting myth may not have been debunked at all.   If he had a technical background, he could have challenged Broadie on some of the author’s findings.  And finally, if Newport weren’t so enthralled, or overwhelmed, by Broadie’s mathematics he could have examined the value of Broadie’s research to the average golfer.  Each of these shortcomings is examined in turn.

Demystifying Broadie -Many of Broadie’s findings can be found in Cochran and Stubbs’ book, The Search for the Perfect Swing,[2] hereinafter referred to as Cochran.  In fact, even the “strokes gained” nomenclature was first used by Cochran.  Cochran studied 40 golfers at one tournament at minimal cost.   Broadie’s research tab was probably in the millions of dollars when the cost of collecting the data is added.  

Myth #1 - Driving Accuracy is Important

Newport wrote that Broadie’s research has shown “driving contributes 28% of top player’s advantage, and the main factor there is raw distance, not accuracy.”[3]  Forty six years ago Cochran wrote “In fact, putting it rather loosely, distance from the tee seems to count for more than accuracy.”[4]  So there was no myth about the primacy of accuracy or if there was it was debunked in the last century. 

Myth #2 -Long Approach shots are not that important.

Newport wrote “The biggest factor in lower scores, however, is approach shot accuracy. It contributes 40% of the advantage that the Tour’s top players enjoy over their peers…For Woods, by far the top strokes-gained player between 2004 and 2012, it was even more: 46%.”[5]  Of course, Cochran found the importance of the long approach shot and even entitled a chapter “Long Approach Shots—Where Tournaments are Won “ [6]  Sorry, no myth debunked here.

Myth #3 – Lay up to a good distance is better than getting it as close as possible.

Newport  wrote that Broadie concluded ”that laying up short to a green to a comfortable distance, such as 100 yards doesn’t generally lead to better scores than knocking the ball as close as possible.” [7] This is consistent with Cochran’s finding that pros hit their half of their approach shots between 7.5% and 8 percent of the range from which each stoke was played .  Moreover Cochran found that the number of shots to get down from approaches of more than thirty yards from the hole could be estimated by:[8]

                Number of shots to get down = .0044·d +2.35

Where ,

                d = the distance in yards.

Broadie reported a similar estimating equation:[9]

                Number of shots to get down = .0041·d + 2.38

In essence, both recognized the importance of getting close except in certain circumstances.

Myth #4 –Putting is not golf’s most crucial skill.

Newport wrote “The No. 1 shibboleth Broadie’s research debunks is that putting is golf’s most crucial skill.”  Broadie and Cochran have a small disagreement here, but that could be due to methodology or semantics (i.e., how “crucial” is defined).   Cochran looks at the proportion of putts holed from various distances for the top nine and bottom nine finishers in the tournament studied.  The top nine were more proficient than the bottom nine at every distance.  Cochran estimates the top nine players gained (emphasis added) 1.8 strokes per round over the bottom nine by better putting alone.   Since the difference in scoring between these two groups was 4 strokes, 45% of the difference was the result of putting.  That is, putting was crucial in determining the tournament’s outcome.

Newport wrote that “Broadie finds that on average putting contributes 35% of Tour winners’ advantage.”  This is not far from Cochran’s estimate of 45%.  Since Cochran’s comparison is with the bottom finishers and Broadie’s comparison is with the average finisher, it is likely that both would conclude putting contributes to approximately 35% of a Tour winners’ advantage.  Newport takes this figure of 35% and implicitly concludes that putting cannot be that important if 65% of a winner’s advantage is due to something else.[10]    There are three problems with Newport’s reasoning. 

First, the largest contributor to a golfer’s success depends on how you breakdown the components of scoring.  Table 1 below shows the contributions different shots make to Tiger Woods “strokes gained” statistic.  From Table 1 you would conclude the two biggest contributors to the success of Tiger Woods are driving and putting.  You would not use Newport’s construct that driving is not that important since it only contributes 22% of Wood’s total strokes gained (i.e., the other parts of his game contribute 78%).

Table 1

Strokes Gained by Tiger Woods (2003-2010)[11]

Total	Long Tee	100-150	150-200	>200	0-20	20-100	Sand	Putt
3.2	0.70	0.20	0.66	0.49	0.13	0.19	0.07	0.70

Second,, if a player does not gain strokes by putting, it does not necessarily mean he putted poorly.  Let’s assume a three hole tournament.  Player A sinks 2 out of three putts from 10 feet.  Player B sinks 1 out of three putts from 30 feet.  Player A’s stroked gains putting is .83, while Player B’s strokes gained putting is .94 strokes.[12]  Player A wins the tournament, but comes in second in the “strokes gained putting” statistic.   Unlike Cochran, Broadie does not compare the putting ability of players for the same type of putt.   A player who hits par fives in two and sticks his irons close, may not have an impressive “strokes gained putting” statistic.  This is not the same as saying such players are not good putters.

 Third, the importance of putting in determining who wins may be due to its variability.  Players typically drive the same distance each week, but can have extraordinarily good and bad putting tournaments.  Using Broadie’s 2010 data, there was essentially no correlation between average “strokes gained putting” and money winnings per tournament (see Appendix).  The PGA Tour has a non-linear payoff, however, and a good putting week can vault a player to the top and to a big pay check.  Putting is clearly not the sole determinant of who wins, but for many players it has been crucial.

Lack of Critical Analysis – Newport fails to question anything that has a hint of mathematics.  Here are some examples:

What errors are involved in Strokes Gained Analysis – It appears Broadie uses the same benchmark for all courses on the Tour.  This could lead to errors.  Assume putts are tougher to make at a course because of the undulation and speed of a green.  A player hits an iron from 160 yards to 10-feet of the flagstick.  Now from 160 yards the player is expected to complete the hole in 2.98 strokes. [13]  From 10-feet Broadie estimates it would take an additional 1.61 strokes.[14]  Broadie would estimate the strokes gained from the approach to be 0.37 strokes.  But what if the probability of making a 10-foot put on this course were 1.81 strokes?  In that case, the strokes gained by the approach shot would be 0.17 strokes, not 0.37 strokes.  If the putt was made, Broadie would estimate the strokes gained by putting at .61 when it should be .81 strokes.   Broadie does try to normalize the “total” strokes gained.  It is not apparent if errors in the estimates of strokes gained by shot category are corrected.

Some Benchmarks Are a Little Strange - Broadie estimates is takes 2.99 stokes to complete a 120-yard hole if the ball is teed up.[15]  He also estimates it takes only 2.85 strokes to complete a hole from 120-yards from the fairway. The advantage of playing from the fairway vanishes at distances of 140-yards or more.  Broadie does not explain this anomaly.  Broadie also estimates it would take 6.1 strokes to complete a hole if the player is in a sand bunker some 600 yards from the hole.  It is not clear on what data set such an estimate could be made.

The Listing of the Most Difficult Courses on the Tour Appears Biased Toward short Courses -   TPCSawgrass and Harbour Town Golf Links are listed as the first and third most difficult courses on the PGA Tour.[16]  These are two of the shorter courses on the Tour.  Broadie’s methodology assumes both courses play to their yardage (i.e., scores should be lower there reflecting the short yardage).  The “effective” playing lengths of these courses, however, are much longer.   The increased effective length stems from the driver not being used on many holes at these two courses.  If the difference between actual and effective length is 300 yards, Broadie would underestimate the benchmark total score by 1.32 strokes (i.e., 300 yards·.0044).   If the effective yardage was used in the strokes gained analysis, the difficulty ranking of each of these course drops considerably.

Usefulness to the Average Golfer - If Broadie’s research was valuable to the average player, Newport’s over promotion of the forthcoming book would be understandable as a public service.   Newport’s columns, however, do not address how the average player would go about using the findings.  The promo for the Broadie’s book claims “Broadie uses analytics to uncover the secrets of the game of golf.”   This is pure hyperbole.  There are no secrets, and to imply that there are is misleading at best. The publisher’s promo goes on to ask “What does it take to drop ten strokes from your golf game?” and implies the answer lies within the book covers.   I suspect the answer is the typical bromide – hit it longer, straighter, and improve around the greens.  

The real policy question that Newport avoids is this: A player has limited money and time to invest in improving his game.  What is the most cost-effective use of those resources?    A player should be able to spot his deficiencies without Broadie’s book.  When he plays with better players, he needs to note what part of his game leads to higher scores than his playing companions.   He may realize he does not hit it as far, but also recognize increasing his distance is not in the cards because of his physical limitations.  Conventional wisdom says he will see that his short game suffers in comparison.  The better player does not skull his chips, flail away in sand bunkers, or three-putt with regular frequency.  Since short game skills are a matter of technique rather than physical strength, concentrating on this part of the game seems most cost-effective use of an average golfer’s resources.    Maybe Newport will have a third column that debunks this conventional wisdom.  Until he does, a prospective reader should pass on Every shot Counts and save $24.92 (plus shipping and taxes).  Remember, every dollar counts.

Appendix

Money Winning per Tournament versus Strokes Gained Putting

Table A shows the strokes gained putting and average winning per tournament for a sample of players.  A linear regression was performed with Money/Tournament as the dependent variable, and Strokes Gained Putting as the independent variable.  The estimated equation was:

                Money/Tournament = 91,000 +25,600 ·Strokes Gained Putting    R² = .02

The coefficient of the Strokes Gained Putting variable was not significant at the 95% level of confidence.

Table A

Strokes Gained Putting and Money Winnings per Tournament for Selected Players

Name	Rank	Strokes Gained Putting	Money/Tournament
Donald, Luke	1	0.863	183,261.70
Casey, Paul	2	0.813	212,540.82
Petterson, Carl	3	0.813	66,705.69
Wilson, Dean	4	0.779	46,257.78
Chalmers, Greg	5	0.773	36,645.00
Gay, Brian	6	0.729	50,722.10
Goosen, Retief	7	0.674	169,373.11
Kuchar, Matt	8	0.638	188,864.50
Collins, Chad	9	0.625	31,383.12
Johnson, Zack	10	0.579	116,679.72
Wi, Charlie	11	0.565	58,092.30
Imada, Ryuji	12	0.554	36,745.32
Sim. Michael	13	0.520	66,946.30
Jones, Matt	14	0.511	45,027.52
McCarron, Scotrt	15	0.503	22,156.66
Merritt, Troy	16	0.503	27,137.14
Baddeley, Aaron	17	0.503	33,819.88
Na, Kevin	18	0.488	77,762.12
Molder. Bryce	19	0.475	54,939.92
Snedeker, Brandt	20	0.464	61,641.92
Westwood, Lee	21	0.458	309,086.73
Stricker, Steve	25	0.435	220,538.68
Furyk, Jim	31	0.402	229,029.62
Els, Ernie	43	0.330	227,943.05
Toms, David	53	0.263	63,639.92
Harrington, Padraig	54	0.260	76,747.39
Poulter, Ian	68	0.211	138,644.00
Fowler, Ricky	78	0.150	102,039.57
Duval, David	85	0.117	38,316.00
Johnson, Dustin	86	0.113	194,483.57
Choi, K.J.	98	0.054	99,998.27
Weir, Mike	114	-0.018	29,425.89
Woods, Tiger	116	-0.034	107,897.08
Appleby, Stuart	119	-0.053	63,413.71
O'Hair, Sean	130	-0.088	74,361.60
Mickelson, Phil	144	-0.148	191,086.65
Cabrera, Angel	145	-0.150	66,654.74
Sabbatini, Rory	155	-0.200	59,492.62
Garcia, Sergio	174	-0.368	62,456.33
Mediate, Rocco	191	-0.550	45,522.68
Singh, Vijay	204	-0.738	55,594.25
Scott, Adam	205	-0.743	124,470.10
Mayfair, Billy	211	-1.014	24,701.19

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[1] Newport John Paul, “The Short Game’s the Thing? Nope,” Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2012 and Newport, John Paul, “Research Debunks Golf Myths,” Wall Street Journal, January 16, 2014.

[2] Cochran, Alastair and Stobbs John, The Search for the Perfect Swing, The Bootlegger, Grass Valley, CA, Copyright 1968.

[3] Newport, 2014.

[4] Cochran, op. cit., p. 184

[5] Newport, 2014.  Broadie reports the average strokes gained from the long tee by the top ten players  is .61 strokes.  The average strokes gained by these groups is 1.84 strokes.   The advantage due to driving would then be 33% of the total not 28%.  The difference could be due to a different time frame.  In his article “Assessing Golfer Performance on the PGA Tour” Broadie uses data from 2003-2010, and not 2004-2012.  Interestingly, Broadie reports different numbers in two different papers.  In “Putts Gained: Measuring Putting on the PGA Tour” Tiger Woods in ranked 116^th in putts gained for the year 2010.  Tiger Woods was ranked 91^st in 2010  in his paper “Assessing Golf Performance on the PGA Tour.”  

[6] Cochran, op. cit., pp. 196-202.

[7] Newport, 2014.

[8] Cochran, op. cit., p. 198.

[9] Broadie, Mark, “Assessing Golfer Performance on the PGA Tour,” Columbia University, 2011, p. 8.

[10] Newport, 2014.  Newport writes “65% of a winner’s advantage comes from off the green.”

[11] Broadie, Assessing Performance, , p. 18.

[12] Broadie, Mark, “Strokes Gained, Measuring Putting on the PGA”, Columbia University, 2011, p.4.

[13] Broadie, Assessing Performance,  p.31.

[14] Broadie, Strokes Gained,  p.4.

[15] Broadie, Assessing Performance, p. 31.

[16] Broadie, Assessing Performance, p.26..